山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测

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李亦秋,仲科

文章导航> 浙江农林大学学报> 2009> 26(1): 7-12

李亦秋, 仲科. 山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测[J]. 浙江农林大学学报, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

引用本文:

李亦秋, 仲科. 山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测[J]. 浙江农林大学学报, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

LI Yi-qiu, FENG Zhong-ke. Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Zhejiang A&F University, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

Citation:

LI Yi-qiu, FENG Zhong-ke. Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测

李亦秋^1,2,
仲科^1,3,

1.
北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室，北京 100083;
2.
绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院，四川绵阳 621000;
3.
山东省林业科学研究院，山东济南 251014

详细信息

通信作者:冯仲科

Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province

LI Yi-qiu^1,2,
FENG Zhong-ke^1,3,

1.
The Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education，Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083，China;
2.
School of Resources and Environment，Mianyang Normal College，Mianyang 621000，Sichuan，China;
3.
Shandong Forestry Academy，Ji’nan 251014，Shandong，China

More Information

Corresponding author:FENG Zhong-ke

摘要:应用灰色系统理论，以 1974 －2007 年山东省森林覆盖率、有林地面积和活立木蓄积量为时间数据序列，建立非等距灰色预测模型。用模型对山东省森林资源主要指标进行拟合，拟合误差均在 10% 以下，拟合精度较高。使用后验差检验方法对模型进行精度等级检验，求得森林覆盖率、有林地面积和森林蓄积量的后验差检验值分别为 0.15，0.23 和0.14，均小于 0.35，小误差概率均为1，预测精度等级为一级好，预测的结果可以作为制订山东省未来林业发展计划的依据，为建立“数字林业”等提供了一种比较理想的预测方法。预测结果表明：2020 年森林覆盖率为 26.78%，还达不到 2020 年森林覆盖率达到 30% 以上的生态省建设阶段性目标。因此，山东省应加快森林资源发展，稳步提高森林覆盖率，明显增加森林蓄积量，提高林分质量，避免造成森林资源的逆转。表 4 参 15
- 森林测计学/
- 森林资源/
- 非等间距序列/
- 灰色模型预测/
- 山东省
Abstract:Non-equidistance grey models of time-series data including forest cover rate，forested area and living trees volume in Shandong Province between 1974 － 2007 were established based on the Grey Systems Theory. The model fitted well with the main outcomes of forest resource measurement in Shandong Province. The fitting errors were lower than 10 percent. The models had ideal fitting precision. Posterior variance test method was used to test the precision grade of the models. The test results showed that the posterior variance test c values of forest cover rate，forested area and living trees volume were 0.15，0.23 and 0.14，which were all lower than 0.35. Small error possibility was 1. The forecast precision of the models reached the “first grade”. The paper provides a more ideal forecast method for constructing “Digital Forestry”. It is a basis for formulating the future development of the forestry program in Shandong Province. The forecast results showed that forest cover rate would be 26.78% in 2020，which was lower than 30%，the phased target of construction of ecology province. Therefore，it is very important to promote the development of forest resource，steadily improve forest cover rate，significantly increase forest volume，improve forest quality，so as to avoid the degeneration of forest resource. ［Ch，4 tab. 15 ref.］
- forest measuration/
- forest resource/
- non-equidistance sequence/
- grey mode forecast/
- Shandong Province

[1]	张姝婧, 唐丽华, 赵凯.环境库兹涅茨曲线模型假设下的森林资源与林业产业关系. 浙江农林大学学报, 2018, 35(5): 885-891.doi:10.11833/j.issn.2095-0756.2018.05.013
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[13]	蔡良良, 蔡霞, 朱红伟.县级森林资源动态信息系统实施中的问题及对策. 浙江农林大学学报, 2004, 21(2): 228-230.
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山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测

李亦秋^1,2,
仲科^1,3,

1. 北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室，北京 100083;
2. 绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院，四川绵阳 621000;
3. 山东省林业科学研究院，山东济南 251014

通信作者:冯仲科

收稿日期: 2008-04-08
修回日期:2008-06-20
刊出日期: 2009-02-20

关键词:

摘要:应用灰色系统理论，以 1974 －2007 年山东省森林覆盖率、有林地面积和活立木蓄积量为时间数据序列，建立非等距灰色预测模型。用模型对山东省森林资源主要指标进行拟合，拟合误差均在 10% 以下，拟合精度较高。使用后验差检验方法对模型进行精度等级检验，求得森林覆盖率、有林地面积和森林蓄积量的后验差检验值分别为 0.15，0.23 和0.14，均小于 0.35，小误差概率均为1，预测精度等级为一级好，预测的结果可以作为制订山东省未来林业发展计划的依据，为建立“数字林业”等提供了一种比较理想的预测方法。预测结果表明：2020 年森林覆盖率为 26.78%，还达不到 2020 年森林覆盖率达到 30% 以上的生态省建设阶段性目标。因此，山东省应加快森林资源发展，稳步提高森林覆盖率，明显增加森林蓄积量，提高林分质量，避免造成森林资源的逆转。表 4 参 15

English Abstract

Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province

LI Yi-qiu^1,2,
FENG Zhong-ke^1,3,

1. The Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation of Ministry of Education，Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083，China;
2. School of Resources and Environment，Mianyang Normal College，Mianyang 621000，Sichuan，China;
3. Shandong Forestry Academy，Ji’nan 251014，Shandong，China

Corresponding author:FENG Zhong-ke

Received Date:2008-04-08
Rev Recd Date:2008-06-20
Publish Date:2009-02-20

Keywords:

Abstract:Non-equidistance grey models of time-series data including forest cover rate，forested area and living trees volume in Shandong Province between 1974 － 2007 were established based on the Grey Systems Theory. The model fitted well with the main outcomes of forest resource measurement in Shandong Province. The fitting errors were lower than 10 percent. The models had ideal fitting precision. Posterior variance test method was used to test the precision grade of the models. The test results showed that the posterior variance test c values of forest cover rate，forested area and living trees volume were 0.15，0.23 and 0.14，which were all lower than 0.35. Small error possibility was 1. The forecast precision of the models reached the “first grade”. The paper provides a more ideal forecast method for constructing “Digital Forestry”. It is a basis for formulating the future development of the forestry program in Shandong Province. The forecast results showed that forest cover rate would be 26.78% in 2020，which was lower than 30%，the phased target of construction of ecology province. Therefore，it is very important to promote the development of forest resource，steadily improve forest cover rate，significantly increase forest volume，improve forest quality，so as to avoid the degeneration of forest resource. ［Ch，4 tab. 15 ref.］

李亦秋, 仲科. 山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测[J]. 浙江农林大学学报, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

引用本文:

李亦秋, 仲科. 山东省森林资源动态变化的非等间距灰色预测[J]. 浙江农林大学学报, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

LI Yi-qiu, FENG Zhong-ke. Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Zhejiang A&F University, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.

Citation:

LI Yi-qiu, FENG Zhong-ke. Non-quidistance gray mode forecast of forest resource dynamic changes in Shandong Province[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University, 2009, 26(1): 7-12.